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No. 8172
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Hmm. We know that at 17:15, people named Shannon, George, Kanon, Nanjo, and Genji were alive in the parlor, and people named Battler and Erika were alive elsewhere. No one left the parlor until 17:20, and afterwards that group collected Battler and Erika. Assuming that everyone moved together between then and 18:00 and no one went missing, there's no room for an 8th person to exist in the group, so the extra person must have one of those 7 names.
Shannon, George, and Kanon are innocent because they were together constantly from the time they locked up Krauss until they found him dead. Also, because of the discrepancy with the number of gunshots at the 4th Twilight, the multiple gunshot sounds were probably from something like a string of firecrackers that was rigged to go off by itself in order to give the culprit an alibi. This is ineffective unless the culprit is with the group in the parlor, so we can probably mark Erika and Battler innocent too. That just leaves Genji and Nanjo, but I’m having trouble narrowing it down from there because I can make a theory with either of them. Say the name of the extra person is X…
0T: Culprit X stole the master key from Kinzo’s corpse while he was in the study at the beginning of the game.
1T: Culprit X just walked into Jessica’s room and committed the murder.
2T: Likewise. Although Servant X was in the VIP room, Culprit X remained free to roam the mansion.
3T: During the blackout, Culprit X entered the VIP room and killed Kumasawa, Gohda, and Servant X. Instead of carefully removing and replacing the door seal, he deliberately broke it, which created the impression that it had been opened from the inside. Then, after committing the murders, he took Servant X’s corpse out of the room and hid it somewhere to make him look like the culprit.
4T: Culprit X was left alone until the gathering in the parlor. He entered Natsuhi’s room and killed her first, then followed Shannon’s group until they locked up Krauss and shot him after they left. Before returning to the parlor, he set up a string of firecrackers on a long fuse so they would go off after he had rejoined the survivors.
5T: Culprit X just killed the victims during the blackout.
6T: Culprit X accompanied the survivors to the guesthouse and killed all of them.
I'm not sure how to nail down the culprit from there without knowing whether the corpse of Nanjo at the 5th Twilight really belonged to the Nanjo who was sitting in the parlor or not. On the other hand, judging from the previous murders, the culprit seems to be interested in framing Servant X, and I think it would be disadvantageous to have the scapegoat’s corpse turn up, so I’m leaning toward Genji. I also thought it was interesting that Shannon’s group didn’t give Genji a gun, implying that he isn't the Genji they work with and trust.
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