Not another one uuu.

"Pfft, it hardly matters who has the gun. Until it's in the possession of the culprits, holding onto it is equivalent to painting a bullseye on your forehead. So, if you wish to join the dead so quickly, you are welcome to it.

Now then, enough empty mourning. There will be time for that once this affair is settled. Let us move onto discussing the identity of the killer once more. Perhaps now you'll all take this more seriously!

A good place to start may be discussing the reasoning behind Natsuhi as a target. There are three things of note that may have marked her out, in my opinion. Her denouncement of the guests on the island and her choice to ally herself with her daughter perhaps struck too close to one of the culprits for comfort.

The second possibility relates to Jessica again. If you suspect Jessica, then this could be reasoned as an attempt to cover her tracks; by attacking someone supporting her, she draws suspicion away from herself.

Finally, Natsuhi was not exactly a hugely active contributor to the discussion. After all this is a game, and all of us should do our utmost to play our parts! Now come, show your reasoning, lest you be targeted for attempting to hide in shadows!"

>>18325

As for the second point you made, Father, might it be too hasty to suspect Jessica-chan alone on that basis? If we take the reasoning a step further, it could just as easily be a culprit who has some interest in protecting Jessica-chan while she herself remains innocent, trying to draw attention away from her. Not that I would be inclined to guess who that could be at this point, of course.

>>18319
Oh hey, I'm alive. Maybe it's not Rosa after all.

I also think Battler should get the gun.

>>18326
Kanon comes to mind.

>>18323
Why are your eyes red anyway? Am I taking crazy pills?

>>18327

Who knows, there are plenty of others that are friendly with Jessica-chan. That harlot maid you're enamored with, for instance.

>>18327

Did anyone get attacked like before 'by the seer' as Shannon had claimed?

>>18330
Maria hasn't been attacked by anyone.


>>18327
Maria told you that Mama was innocent.

>>18319

"Mother! Mother... Rest in peace, with Father... Maybe I'll be joining you both soon..."

>>18320

"Eva-obasan, while I agree that normally a neutral party would be good to hold such a responsibility, right now that would be giving more power to someone who might refuse to act. My mother is dead! The first six were clearly just the beginning. We can't waste any more time on inaction.

So I will vote that no one holds the gun for now. No one can be trusted with that responsibility."

>>18325

"Grandfather, you raise excellent points. Mother denounced the 'guests,' and it should be especially noted that she voted with me that Eva-obasan was a witch. The obvious perspective is that Eva-obasan would kill her to weaken those who suspected her.

Then, as you say, it could have been me, assuming the first perspective would hold so that, with Mother's...murder...I would sway people to my point of view. The flaw, though, is that I would never kill my mother. I have no proof, aside from the fact that I was once again with Kanon-kun last night. He can provide my alibi, just as I can provide his. That is all the proof I can muster, though...

And for your third point, you are correct that Mother did not contribute much, but did enough that she could have been considered a viable target.

So that leaves us with two options. One, that it is Eva-obasan or an ally. Two, that it is me or an ally.

I choose option three.

There are those who would win no matter which option was chosen, those who are perceived as neutral. Battler-kun, for one. But more so, I think of you and Genji-san. It's true that you voted against me yesterday, so you're not truly neutral, but I find it odd. You encourage suspicion, do your best to drive us at each others' throats, all for the sake of this thing which you sickly call a game. And in doing so you handily guide the discussion, point out reasons why we should suspect each other, and subtly avoid the spotlight yourself.

As to why I suspect you instead of Battler-kun, it's precisely because you're not entirely neutral. You voted against me when it seemed like I was the most likely candidate, even though I was 'driving discussion.' You don't care who gets voted a witch, you only care that someone does.

So yes, unless someone can explain why my reasoning is wrong or give me better reasoning of their own, I think you are a witch, Grandfather!

>>18330

"...in response to your question, Genji-san, I was not attacked last night."

>>18333
"Hmph. I knew you'd make an attempt to shift the spotlight away from yourself today, I just hadn't expected it to be so... Feeble.

Don't get me wrong, it's an admirable effort, but your true colours show through in your words. What was it, 'There are those who would win no matter which option was chosen, those who are perceived as neutral.'

Do you see the flaw? Let me point it out for you. An innocent would lose in said situation, if the wrong person was chosen. That such a possibility has escaped you is indicative of how you have come to think, Jessica! Yes, this is a game, a game of the innocents versus the witch. Do not expect, however, that merely because it is a game I will not commit everything I have to it!

I encourage discussion because, without it, we have a shambles such as yesterday, where suspicion is not focused, and the culprit is allowed to move freely. I direct discussion, because otherwise you seem content to rest on the laurels of your 'alibis'. As for avoiding the spotlight, please, enlighten me as to how I have done this. I have voiced my opinions time and again in an attempt to keep discussion going.

As for your final point, you are simply incorrect. Whilst I may have initially risen to your defence, I have since realised that doing so was a mistake. I care quite deeply that someone in particular is labelled the witch, Jessica.

You continue to follow the mentality of one side against another, be it those who are paired against the individuals, or the guests on the island against the inhabitants. You rely time and again on Kanon as your alibi. Then, finally, you make such a half-hearted attempt against myself? Your series of poor decisions has cemented my opinion.

You are the culprit.

>>18334

"Alright, Grandfather, just for this time, I will face you head-on. It's been your sick and twisted mind that lead our family to this state, and while we all have tried to give you the respect you deserve as the head of this family, it's about time someone stood up to you and said 'that is enough.'

You say the innocents lose if the wrong person is chosen. That's true, but I've turned the chessboard over, as Battler-kun's mother, may she rest in peace, was fond of saying. I'm trying to think of it from the culprit's perspective. If they are hiding amongst us, why attack Mother? As you so handily pointed out, that leads to believing that it was my side or Eva's side, because we had obvious motive. But this psycho has already proven with the first six deaths that they need no real motive. So why attack someone that could lead to suspicion beig directly cast on them? Sure, evidence and argument can shift the odds, but if this were pure chance the culprit would be betting it on a coin flip. Everyone will be focused on whether it lands on heads or tails, and not even care about any other options! So yes, Grandfather, I was wrong to say that a neutral innocent would win if the wrong person was chosen. A witch perceived as neutral, though, would win no matter if the coin lands heads or tails. Doubtless you would call fault on me for thinking from the witch's perspective, but who else should I think like in order to catch this bastard?"

"And since you can't seem to grasp how you've evaded the spotlight, let me be more blunt. At a debate where there multiple people, each being called upon to explain their position or answer questions, does anyone truly care about the person asking the questions? Driving the discussion? Of course not, because they're too busy coming up with answers and defending their points of view. Since the beginning you have called upon people to act and voice their opinions. You've challenged others points' of view. You even flipped sides as to whether my calling out people in pairs was a move that meant I was innocent because no witch would highlight themselves, to now saying that the mentality of 'one side against the other' is a glaring point marking me as a witch!

You even used that view yourself only a few moments ago, Grandfather, when you called it a game of the innocents versus the witch!

So yes, you've voiced your opinions. Your opinions which consist of demanding that we discuss who was guilty and who was innocent, and which handily kept the fact that you had no alibi quiet until Maria-chan was smart enough to call you out. Immediately after which, I might add, your most faithful servant Genji-san chimed in and didn't let us linger on that little fact.

I still have my alibi, Grandfather, even though you said that using it when I did 'reeked of desperation.' Well I smell that same reek coming off you now. Belittling my argument by calling it 'feeble' and 'half-hearted.' Well I don't feel it is! I feel that my alibi is stronger than your lack of one! I feel like my logic is more sound than your attempts to turn your family into a chaotic bloodbath of treachery! I feel like I'm going all-in in this madness you insist on calling a game! I've lost my Father! I've lost my Mother! So sit down and shut up, old geezer, because you will not take down Jessica Ushiromiya without a fight!

The truth is I am innocent! I have killed no one! But I am prepared to take responsibility for the death of this witch, and I stand my ground and say that you are that witch, Grandfather!

>>18335

It does seem that Father has been occupying a bit of a blind spot, doesn't it? If he doesn't have a sufficient rebuttal, I may be convinced to consider some of Jessica-chan's points to be evidential.

>>18335
"I'm happy to see you making more than a token effort. More than can be said for the rest of these slimes, at least!

To start with, your first point. Let's begin by disregarding the notion that the culprit needs no motive merely because of the first six deaths. They occurred before there was any suspicion whatsoever, and now that we are aware of the culprits' actions, they will have had to change their strategy completely. Moving on to thinking from the perspective of the culprit, I will admit, we've both been blinded here.

We've forgotten that, in all likelihood, there is more than one culprit. The chances of all of them being on one of any side, no matter how we divide the survivors, is relatively small. Whilst this is worth keeping in mind, let us continue this section of the discussion under the assumption that the culprits are currently working in the interests of preserving a specific member on whom suspicion has currently been cast.

Let us move onto your second point. The only dichotomy that exists that is of any value is that of the innocents against the witches. Naturally, this is one that can be leant on. Attacking me for using this is absurd. What should not be relied on too heavily are the other divisions we are making based on pre-existing relationships before the game. By these, I mean guests vs residents, pairs vs unpaired. Your side vs Eva's side is an exception, as this is an arrangement that has come to exist since the start of the game, and is based on things that have come to light since.

As for your third point... I'll concede to the remark about my lack of an alibi. That is a fact, and one that will place some suspicion on me, I'll admit. However, you cannot point that out as exceptional. Genji, Eva, Natsuhi, Battler, Shannon and myself all lack alibis for the first night, however no-one has made a point thus far on lingering on any of those. Indeed, Battler appears to be the most trusted among us at present in spite of it. If you wish to level an argument against me, then the others should fall under the exact same scrutiny.

Let's see, what else is there... As I've previously admitted, my early remarks as to your possible innocence were made as a skeleton argument that I had hoped to drive discussion with. Indeed, the point that you seem so pained about, that regarding the pairs, was merely made to point out a flaw in Rosa's reasoning at the time. In the context, you will find that I am applying Rosa's criteria for what indicated someone being the culprit, not my own.

To close, this discussion will grow stale with only two viewpoints. It's about time the rest of you weighed in on this situation! Jessica and I are not the only players, after all!

>>18335
I'm sorry, to have caused you a little misunderstanding, my assensment you claim was to pull away from that fact, that is not entirely correct. I was just saying we shouldn't be jumping around to conclusions at that moment. My intention was not to mislead or sway directly, but to just think deeply about things before making a choice. One would hardly want to make a choice they'd later regret.

I have to admit Jessica-sama your points about Kinzo-sama are valid. You keep saying and have said from the beginning, by stating me as Kinzo's 'most faithful servant,' while I'm honored you would see me as someone so faithful, I have a duty to all Ushiromiya family members, not solely Kinzo-sama. And you've said I've been tried to defend Kinzo-sama all this time. I have done neither defend nor attack anyone this whole time. Please do not attack me for my indifference, I'm simply trying to think things through before acting. I have accused no one this game, nor defended anyone. Do not make it seem like I have, furniture must remain indifferent when two of its master's are fighting. It can't pick a side because it is furniture. It only exists to comfort and support all parties.

So Jessica-sama, and Kinzo-sama, I will side with ultimately who I decide is worth serving. If I deem someone worth defense, who I believe is innocent I will, if not I will stay silent. Don't assume there is more to any statements unless I say so. I was just asking questions and thinking about the situation, nothing more, nothing less. Until Beatrice grants me rest, I must continue going on, trying to figure out 'her' intentions. Will she choose me to live or to die? Until my rest is granted, I can only wonder, and try to serve my masters in staying alive by helping them get out of Beatrice's web.

Also this is unrelated, but where are Battler-sama and Rosa-sama?

Last edited at 15/10/12(Mon)03:09:23

>>18338
Maria has no idea where Mama or Battler nii is.

Last edited at 15/10/12(Mon)15:23:06

>>18319
Not Natsuhi oba-san, she... she hardly even spoke against anyone! Why her of all people, I wonder...

>>18320
>>18322
>>18323
>>18327
Wh-why does it feel like you're voting against me in a roundabout way? It's such a big responsibility... Heck, I wouldn't trust myself with it. I for one admire Jessica-chan's resolve as opposed to my current neutrality. As hard as this is, it appears to be wise to condemn someone as witch, and I doubt my own capacity to make use of the gun at all.

>>18338
>>18339
Sorry for the silence, but I've... been thinking things through a little. Don't know about Rosa oba-san.

It might be worth noting that the one person Natsuhi oba-san was against is Eva oba-san...

Last edited at 15/10/14(Wed)20:17:10

>>18370
Battler-sama makes 2 good points, Natsuhi-sama didn't say much. This means that what she did say is important.

She called out Eva-sama as a witch and was voting to lynch her.

Which suggests 2 possible answers. 1. Eva is a witch and went to wipe out those who voted against her. Or 2. Someone wants us to suspect Eva.

And you're right Battler-sama, I never thought about it like that, that the person who has the gun is like sentencing them to death, I think I'll take back my vote, I don't want to do that to anyone.

Nee-san, Father, everyone, I'm sorry for the wait. I needed to do some thinking. Alone. I can't think clearly with all this back and forth.

Come here, Maria.



Now. We don't have time for these constant arguments, so let me be blunt: we should lynch Battler. Right away.

>>18372

Eh? Battler-kun?!

>>18372
Oba-san!? Where does this come from? Suddenly speaking up again and.. s-saying this... What do I have to gain, killing family members off one by one!?

Suppose you weren't attacked last night, either...?

>>18373
Eva oba-san, can you think of anyone who might want to make you look suspicious, or... a reason Natsuhi was lynched?

>>18373
That's right, nee-san. Why should we trust someone who has no one to vouch for them? Why should we immediately think to hand them a weapon?

Turning it down was a hollow gesture, Battler. The only people here who know exactly who can be trusted are the wolves. The rest of us have a single person we can rely on, at best. You are nobody's support. You are already a weak link, one that should be eliminated. The witches have no need to target you, and nobody has any reason to trust you. In that case, why would you be offered anything? You should be an unknown to everybody.

Are you even who you say you are?

All you have done is throw seeds of doubt here and there and wait for them to take root. Perhaps you wanted the weapon to be offered so you could turn it down. Maybe you changed your mind on taking it, because it would be obvious that anyone who is able to keep it is a witch.

Last edited at 15/10/16(Fri)17:55:30

>>18375
Uuu...Battler-nii isnt Battler-nii?

>>18376
Mama isn't sure, Maria. Did you remember him at first? You were very little when he last came.

You can't trust strangers.

>>18377
......

What do you say, everyone? Father? We must take action right now and remove the first wolf. The culprits are right here, in this very room. They are right where we want them. We can act, or we can sit and chat while we're picked off one by one.

I'll be frank again. Genji, Kanon -- one of you is a wolf. Depending on how many there are, maybe even both. I'm sorry, Father, but you can't trust rabble you pick up off the street over your own blood. I suspect Genji most of all.

I would suspect you too, nee-san, since you suggested Battler, but after last night I have no reason to. I suspect you allowed his subtle activity to influence you into thinking that he isn't a threat. I know you seem to be alone, and that might make Battler sympathetic to you, but think carefully. Think very carefully, and use the process of elimination. There is less reason for witches to group themselves clearly. Even alone as you are, you should be more trusting of pairs. Think about your own situation, and how that might apply similarly to others. Jessica was right about that. The witches wait for a human to make a mistake in their reasoning, and then pounce on it to artificially boost it. They take the attention away from themselves by waiting for everyone else first. Battler has tricked you.

Once we remove Battler, I will confirm whether Genji or Kanon is innocent, depending on who we find the most suspicious. After that, I urge you to kill the other. Because they will likely kill me on the third night, and I can't help you after that.

But no matter what, they can't stop me from determining one of them by tomorrow. If we play our cards right, we can stop them from even reaching the third night.

Last edited at 15/10/16(Fri)20:04:33

And I will be taking the gun, if you allow me. I won't die tonight, that I can say with certainty. Therefore, I am the best candidate today. We can vote again on it tomorrow if need be.

If you don't trust me, I ask you give it to Jessica. She might die, but I think the witches must find me more of a threat by now, regardless of who takes the gun. If the majority agree, the wielder is irrelevant to them.

Or are we going to let nobody have it?

>>18380
If Rosa-sama desires the gun, I will vote to give Rosa-sama the gun.

As for voting to lynch Battler-sama. I understand we need to lynch someone now, but... I just don't want to make the wrong choice.

(But for the sake of moving game forward, I'll vote with Rosa on this matter.)

>>18380
Mama would be well suited for an anti magic weapon. (vote rosa for gun)
Sorry Battler nii

>>18379

"You'll confirm which one is innocent? How? Are you saying you're some kind of detective? And then you say you're certain that you won't die tonight. Why? And I have said it time and again, and will until I am in my grave: Kanon-kun is innocent, and I am his alibi."

"Regardless, that was a passionate argument. But I see a few things about it that stick out. The main one the timing. As you said, the witch will wait for everyone else and then pounce on a flaw."

"You were the last one to speak, and accused someone no one else was accusing. This could end up splitting the vote out of confusion. After that you insist that the vote be taken as soon as possible, removing the opportunity to think, like the one you allowed yourself. This was also the first real defense of Grandfather aside from what I provided him, as suddenly pointing the finger at Battler-kun distracts from my accusations against him. Even Genji-san seemed to not offer up a defense for Grandfather. But you did by accusing Battler-kun as a witch without even trying to argue why Grandfather is not. You didn't even mention him as one of your suspects!"

"So let's take something you said and push it further. You said the witches have no purpose in grouping themselves. Revising my earlier theory in light of this argument you made, I now see Grandfather and you as the most suspicious. You have an alibi, after all, in Maria-chan. I suspect,though, that she is used to telling people that you are with her when in fact you're elsewhere. All you have to do is tell her to, and she'll say anything you want her to."

"Still, you did make good points about Battler-kun, and a possible perspective as to why he could be a witch. However, even though it may have been a hollow gesture, turning down the gun was at least a gesture. I see him more as a scapegoat than a witch, but I admit that I could be wrong."

"However! It is not enough to sway my vote!"

>>18337

"Grandfather, I have taken into account the motive. The motive of the witches is to hide and keep killing. That is why you killed Mother, because she was in no way directly tied to you since the start of this madness. Her death would throw suspicion at Eva or myself."

"Now that I've thrown suspicion on you, Rosa-obasan has distracted us by putting suspicion on Battler-kun, hence preserving the one member on whom suspicion has been cast. I have admitted that Battler-kun is suspicious to me, but not nearly so much as you!"

>>18380

"I will take the gun if you wish, because I know I am trustworthy. However, I doubt that I can prove to anyone else that I am trustworthy, so I do not expect that I'll get it. I will not vote to let you have the gun, Rosa-obasan, for the reasons I've just given.

If people wish for me to have the gun, know that I will level it first against Grandfather, unless a very solid reason is given for me to point at someone else. I accept that I will likely die, but I suspect that I might tonight anyways."

"So! Do as you will! Unless I am not seeing something about Battler-kun that others are, I still say Grandfather is the witch!"

Hmph. While I appreciate Rosa's empathy, I can't agree with suspecting Battler-kun at this point. Even if both members of a pair aren't culprits, if only one was a culprit they'd benefit from having an ally that would blindly defend them. Moreover, if their unwitting ally died, it'd remove a great deal of suspicion towards them. In fact, the more pairs infiltrated, the better the chance that the culprits could succeed in wiping the rest of us out.

Currently there are four clear pairs left alive: Genji and Father, Jessica-chan and Kanon, George and Shannon, and Rosa and Maria-chan. Since George is obviously innocent, I am currently prepared to suspect the remaining three groups, as well as that harlot maid.

If the culprits had infiltrated each group as I suspect, their actions become somewhat easier to predict. In the event that none of the culprits are suspected, they'll kill off a member of a culprit-free group or a groupless person like me or Battler-kun in order to thin our numbers. If a culprit is suspected, they will likely kill the member of their own group that is not a culprit: this could cause reduced suspicion towards people who think culprits won't kill their own group members, and also for people who think that killing a group member would be likely for suspected culprits, so no culprit would do it after this explanation.

While Battler-kun was suitable to hold the gun for his previous neutrality, it also has the benefit of keeping it out of the hands of the groups. A culprit with a living group partner and a gun in the group would be virtually impossible to convict without a massive consensus that is unlikely to before additional unnecessary deaths occur.

I know it takes a lot to convince you, Nee-san, but I hoped Jessica would be convinced.

I don't think you are a witch, Jessica. You can see that. As for you, Nee-san, by default I would find suspicious, but I have my own reasons which I think make it near impossible for you to be a witch, by deduction. I'll counter your points in time, but now, I'll calm down a bit. Let's all calm down and think about what we know.

First: the wolves have almost no reason to accuse anyone. We must lynch, or we just line ourselves up for slaughter one by one. They know. They'll sit back, laugh at our vague arguments, and lynch whoever it is the sheep are lynching. There is no reason to stand up and put themselves directly in suspicion. They don't care who is lynched, they only care about defending a fellow culprit in the rare circumstance that we attempt to lynch them. Currently, only have a 1/5 chance, assuming the culprits are two.

There is one additional circumstance where they will openly accuse: to make us be mislead by this very argument. But that is more advantageous to them when there are less of us. Currently, it's foolish. The most they will do is pretend to be a neutral but cautious partly and ask us to think for them with things like "it might be worth thinking about" or "maybe we should note" or "I don't know about this, but it seems that". Sound familiar? Useless displays that we're supposed to take as them being a valuable, level-headed sort of person.

So, Jessica, you seem to suspect those who accuse you or strongly accuse anyone. That is the wrong line of thought. I don't suspect Father currently, because he knew that someone must be lynched. I see you as against him because he was against you, but remember this -- nobody KNOWS you are innocent. Most are struggling to find some line of reasoning to follow that has a chance of them being less wrong than others. For Father, that was accusing you. Father also knew the gun was not particularly valuable at this stage, and was kind enough to let us all know. But it's also true the culprits don't care about the gun when our chances of voting for the wrong person are high by default.

Do you understand? If you do, I'll put voting aside for a bit and make my next suggestion.

>>18394
Whilst I object to the idea that Genji and I form a group, it's nice to hear you making an effort for once. With regards to your point about the gun, at this early stage in the game, it should still be relatively easy to overthrow the opionion of whichever group holds it. We should only be seriously concerned about it much further down the line.

>>18396
Rosa, once again you make a compelling argument. However, before I even consider the possibility that Jessica is not the culprit, I'd like to know precisely why you've changed your mind on her.

>>18397
Of course, Father.

My accusation of Jessica was predicated on the fact that she tilted suspicion towards pairs, rather than individuals. We were lacking any clear hints at the time, and we have no choice but to lynch.

However, most of the people she has accused directly are not pairs. I came to realize that it was simply a mistake on her part, and far more suspicious people have surfaced now.

I can't say that she isn't a witch, but the chances, by default, are low.

Last edited at 15/10/19(Mon)04:18:30

>>18398
Hmph. I'm still not entirely convinced. Perhaps some words from the accused might help clear things up somewhat. If this comes down to the wire, and Battler ends up being the only possible choice besides myself or another absence of a lynch, then I'll follow, but until then I stand by my argument against Jessica.

Battler, it seems that everyone's focus on you stems from your unwillingness to cast suspicion on anyone else present. If you wish to survive, I suggest that you make a case against someone, and prove your value to the group. Indeed, I expect the same of everyone else at this point in the game. If you fail to contribute, you are of no use to us, alive or dead.

With regards to the use of the gun, I'll vote for it to go to Battler. If Rosa, Maria or Genji obtains it now, Rosa's argument will only need one more follower before it reaches a majority, something which I feel would be premature, given Battler has not yet had a chance to offer a proper rebuttal. In the interest of self-preservation, I cannot give it to Jessica.

>>18399
To Battler!? Father, surely you wouldn't want him ending up with the gun after all I've said?

I strongly advise against it, but I suppose this is so you can be sure your vote isn't for my side?

As for Jessica... perhaps we should get her to confirm something for us? I'm interested. Do Kanon and her defend her defend each other because they know each other to be innocent, or is it because they are the lovers and will do anything to keep each other alive?

>>18400
I don't wish for him to get the gun. This is simply the most reasonable way for me to prevent the gun from reaching your hands until he's had a chance to voice his argument. After all you've said, I highly doubt he'll come to get it. Fear not, I fully intend to change my vote once the argument has progressed further.

>>18401
I understand.

Let me give you all a suggestion then.

It's possible for us to have pairs we suspect of being the lovers vote against themselves. If they can vote, we know they aren't the lovers. In fact, we could have everyone sequentially vote for everyone else in order to prove they have no lover effect. But I can't understate how dangerous this is. One of the lovers may be a witch, or both of them may be, but if both are innocents and we isolate them, then we're just handing the witches two with one stone.

There's one other point to this strategy. If everyone confirms they are not the lovers except three people, we know one of them is the dire witch. In fact, we would likely to be able to tell immediately which one is, because the other would make an obvious pair.

This is what confuses me most about Natsuhi's death. The most logical target was one of George, Jessica, Shannon and Kanon. Could it be they had some reason not to target either pair? Did they overlook it? Or are they planning to kill the lovers later on to catch us suddenly?

>>18402
This strategy is incredibly risky, simply because if neither of the lovers are witches, we risk handing over two kills to the witches.

As for your second point, turn the chessboard around. Don't ask why the witches gunned for a single target. Consider why they had to choose someone who wasn't a member of a group. It's possible that the witches have a worst case scenario, where one of them is a lover to an innocent, and another is a dire witch to an obvious partner. I want to emphasize that this is not just limited to Jessica, Kanon, George and Shannon. Rosa, you and your daughter also fall into this category. If the witches are in such a situation, you can understand their trepidation and unwillingness to reduce the number of pairs still in the game.

An alternate reason is simply to maintain suspicion. At present, there are several pairs, and it would be a strange feat of chance if all members of all pairs are innocent. So long as this is the case, the alibis offered by virtue of being one of these pairs is weakened. Indeed, this is why Jessica is a potential witch in my eyes, because she added herself and Kanon to an already relatively saturated pool of pairs. An alternative interpretation is that some of the pairs have perfectly valid alibis without being lovers. If the culprits attacked a member of such a pair, and the partner failed to die alongside them, then we have a confirmed innocent amongst us, placing the culprits at a disadvantage.

>>18403
If you were listening carefully you should know what my role is, Father, and that role is the one the witches most want to eliminate, but then I suppose it isn't proven. I can't die tonight, unless they already tried to kill me last night, or in the 1/11 case where Natsuhi had the right power, but I fear they will try to eliminate me over the next two nights.

By the numbers, the strategy is actually a sound move to make if there are only two witches. In the innocent-innocent case, three innocents die to kill one witch. Take a look at these numbers I've written down.

8, 2 -> 5, 1
7, 3 -> 4, 2
6, 4 -> 3, 3

With two witches, our odds go up. With three, they go down, but it should be easy to win at that point with me helping you. If it's four or more then it's suicide. And if that's the case, we're already in an extremely perilous situation already, one which the gun almost tips.

This strategy might seem merciless even if it's effective, but you built this family from the ashes, Father, and it can be done again. I want to punish the culprits for making fools of us, and have our name live on in spite of them.

You're right that this places the pairs under suspicion again. But we can't discount the possibility that the culprits overlooked it, or didn't want us to know. They might have wanted us to think they were always one step behind of where they were, so they could take us suddenly by killing both lovers.

Last edited at 15/10/19(Mon)10:29:38

>>18404
Rosa-sama, are you the Seer?

>>18407
Yes.

Let me add that revealing myself so early might not be a wise move, but currently, we are lacking information. I'm trying to offset that.

So let me ask all the innocents here: come forth with any information you have. You don't have to reveal your role like I have. In fact, it may be best not to. But if you know that someone is innocent, or anything else of importance, tell us.

And most importantly, this is a life or death situation. Don't make any arguments based on emotion!

I want to stress that. My reasoning goes like this: assuming the lovers are both innocent, we have have 6 special roles and I think no more than 3 witches. That leaves at least two innocents with no ability at all. The lovers are in an even worse position than those two.

Now, remember what we know about Beatrice's game. A lack of information is offset. If we assume the offset is proportionate to the disadvantage, then a few of us could have been provided with extremely valuable information. Say, information that drastically changes the balance of the scales if it can be believed.

Something like "all of the residents of the island are innocent". What Natsuhi said before she died. We now know Natsuhi was innocent, so she was not trying to deceive us. That leaves two options. One, she was telling the truth; or two, she made an argument from emotion, without really knowing it was true. We can't ask a corpse which one it meant. If we could trust her statement, then I could tell you right now that the witches are Nee-san, George, and Battler, and I would only need to convince the others of that.

Of course, I don't believe Beatrice would put herself at such a disadvantage, which leaves one option: it was an argument from emotion. Even though dying should have elevated all of her statements to truth, we still don't know if we can believe what she said. Even in that case, I don't fully understand why she said it. We have all seen Natsuhi be unkind to servants. Why did she vouch for them like that?

But in the end, I think it was from emotion. I ask everyone not to make the same mistake. You won't be able to correct yourself when you're dead.

Last edited at 15/10/20(Tue)13:30:33

>>18410

"You have said that I accuse based on who accuses me, Rosa-obasan. If you believe that, you have not been listening. I accuse based on who seems to be trying to lead discussions in certain directions, whoever might be trying to blind the group to possibilities. For instance, the possibility that you might be lying about being the Seer. That you and Grandfather are the witches, and are trying to form a lynch mob under your guidance while trying to seem separate enough that an obvious alliance is impossible to see."

"Now that I've said it though, I should add that I find it an unlikely scenario, at present. If you had continued your constant pressure against Battler-kun, I perhaps would have continued to consider it, but your reasoning seems sound even without being pointed at him. I still suspect that you might be lying about being the Seer, but whether you are or not doesn't concern me. Keep making sense, and I'll keep listening."

"Everyone, though, remember to consider the possible ulterior motives of everything everyone says or does here. Why are they acting as they are and saying what they are, when they are and how they are. If you find your train of thought derailing, figure out why that is and who caused it. Magic is the art of misdirection, so we all must do our best to not be fooled."

"That being said...Rosa-obasan, for the moment you've convinced me, and while I feel Battler-kun's silence is more a sign of his innocence than his guilt, I am willing to switch my vote if he does not offer a convincing argument. As for Kanon, I will tell you, as a fact, that he is innocent. Believe me or not, as you will."

Last edited at 15/10/21(Wed)21:59:27

>>18415
Thank you, Jessica-chan. Maybe I haven't been listening enough.

But I think putting your suspicion on the direction of discussion is dangerous. What if you subconsciously focus on those most active in discussion? When at this point, the most logical strategy I can see for the witches is keeping quiet and allowing us to pick wrong all by ourselves? If they aren't doing that, then they're adopting a risky reverse psychology strategy they have no need for.

Believe me, the reason why I entered discussion when I did had nothing to do with either you or Father. While you might have accused him at that point, I don't believe this would have led to a lynching, and I certainly don't believe it was something that he couldn't argue his own way out of. For the mean time, I would like to trust you both. I have reasons to. I don't want you at each other's throats.

First, both you and Father were the strongest proponents of lynching, when others abstained. Second, you both push suspicion on each other so strongly even though a more passive approach to someone else's suggestion would work. If one of you was the witch, that one could just kill the other without needing to draw attention. Third, even with my argument, you both aren't willing to change your mind just yet, at least not without a little more discussion.

For you specifically, you directly warned us that you would point the gun at Father if it was handed to you. Even though that might have been obvious at the time, there was no need to stress it. Stressing it only makes innocents less likely to hand it to you unless they absolutely agree. You also continually beg for us to believe your innocence, and Kanon's innocence. To me, that seems like a wish from the bottom of your heart to convey that information not only to help yourself, but to help others. It reminds me of my own situation. Perhaps I should confirm your innocence, before Genji? That would most likely give me two people at once that I can trust, assuming one of you is not the dire witch.

As for Father, his arguments always seem based on logic, and he puts himself at the forefront. But like you, he makes the mistake of looking for deception right in front of his face, when it really could be lurking in the shadows.

What do you say, Nee-san? Are you also willing to reconsider Battler?

Last edited at 15/10/22(Thu)02:00:14

>>18417
Kanon says he will vote for Rosa because she appears to want out of this world. Although he expresses that it probably won't matter because getting a majority to vote at all won't happen this far into the night.

>>18426
So not only do you pile on the suggestion to give Battler the gun, you vote for me when I accuse him?

Even though you defend each other, it seems like you and Jessica aren't on the same page, doesn't it...?

>>18427

"Kanon is not furniture, Rosa-obasan. He is a human being, just like anyone, and is allowed to have his own opinions. I know that Kanon-kun is innocent, and Kanon-kun knows that I am innocent. However, that is all that we can say for certain. If he believes you are truly the witch, then he has the right to voice his opinion!"

"However, just to be clear, as it currently stands, the votes against Battler-kun are: Rosa-obasan, Maria-chan, and Genji-san. Grandfather and I are willing to vote against him as well, if we find his counter-argument lacking. Kanon-kun is voting against Rosa-obasan."

"George-niisan, Shannon-chan, you've both gone quiet. Eva-obasan, what do you think? And Battler-kun, please... I don't want to believe you're behind this, but you need to convince us at this point."

The game appears to be dead, most likely on account of the slowness of trying to play werewolf on an imageboard. As such, I will be posting the information regarding identities and relationships.


Players:
BakuraMaria
LilianeRosa
CirnoBattler
LionNatsuhi
DaedonJessica
OzakiKanon
anon-kunShannon
FeenieGeorge
MeushijyoEva
CheshireKinzo
RosaGenji

anon-kun (who was originally Shannon) had to drop out, so Lion (who died as Natsuhi) took over as Shannon
Liliane (who was originally Rosa) had to drop out, so Piece took over as Rosa


Characters:
Kinzo - Witch
Natsuhi - Human
Eva - Dire Witch
Rosa - Seer's bodyguard
Jessica - Lovers (with Kanon)
George - Island idiot
Battler - Martyr
Maria - Seer
Genji - Witch
Shannon - Human
Kanon - Lovers (with Jessica)

Last edited at 15/11/17(Tue)12:09:34

Dear Kinzo,

You are a witch.

The other witches are Genji and Eva.

If you make it out of this alive, perhaps we can once again be together.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Natsuhi,

You are a human.

You do not know who the witches are, but you do not trust Eva or her family. Something about them simply isn't right.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Eva,

You are a witch, but a witch who has found meaning in her life.

You love your son George dearly. So dearly, in fact, that you would kill yourself if your son were to die. You must protect George at all costs, even against other witches, for your own life depends on it.

The other witches are Kinzo and Genji.

If another witch becomes a threat to George, perhaps finding a way to put them under suspicion may be your best bet. Your victory condition lies with you and your son surviving.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Rosa,

You are a human.

You are a bodyguard to your daughter, Maria. You love her so dearly that you would take a bullet for her. If anyone would ever attempt to take Maria's life, you will perish protecting Maria from that harm.

Maria appears to have some magical power to detect witches, but is not herself a witch.

You can trust Maria.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Jessica,

You are human. You are in love with the human Kanon.

You and Kanon share the trait "Lovers." This means that neither of you can vote against each other as well as the fact that one of you will commit suicide if the other were to die first.

You can trust Kanon.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear George,

You are human. You are the island's idiot. You are required to cast a vote during any and all witch hunt/lynching phases.

Do note that if you are voted for lynching, you can reveal that you are the island idiot to become immune to lynching for the rest of the game, at the cost of losing the ability to vote for the rest of the game.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Battler,

You are a human.

You are the martyr, which plays identically to a normal human except for one thing: that you can allow yourself to be lynched in place of another who has already been convincted during the witch hunt.

Seems like a terribly useless power, huh? But who knows, maybe you can find a way to make it less useless?

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Maria,

You are a human.

You are the seer. This gives you the power to determine whether or not someone is a witch once per night during the seers turn.

Your mother, Rosa, loves you dearly. So dearly that she would take a death in your place. You can trust her.

I do hope that you use this power to find and defeat the evil black witches.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Genji,

You are a witch.

The other witches are Kinzo and Eva.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Shannon,

You are human. A normal, everyday human.

You can trust George, he is not a witch.

The other thing to note is that you are not allowed to speak to or communicate with Kanon at all.

From,

Beatrice

_______

Dear Kanon,

You are human. You are in love with the human Jessica.

You and Jessica share the trait "Lovers." This means that neither of you can vote against each other as well as the fact that one of you will commit suicide if the other were to die first.

You can trust Jessica.

The other thing to note is that you are not allowed to speak to or communicate with Shannon at all.

From,

Beatrice

>kinzo was a witch